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本报记者  潘晓彤  本报驻德国特约记者  昭  东“金九银十”的说法在全球海运业曾经也同样适用，不过在今年的传统旺季，海运市场却遭受阵阵寒流。         Chinese and American college students pose for a group photo at Tsinghua University's sports complex in Beijing, capital of China, Aug. 16, 2026. (Xinhua)As the buzzer sounded, bench players sprinted onto the court, joining their Chinese and American teammates in a huddle, bumping fists and cheering, as they celebrated a hard-earned victory.
On the basketball court, young players from the two countries came together as teammates, rather than competitors.
The basketball games, held at Tsinghua University's sports complex in Beijing over the weekend, featured 16 U.S. players teaming up with their Chinese peers in separate men's and women's games, with players from both countries mixed on each team.
The games were a highlight of the 2026 Sino-U.S. Summer College Basketball & Youth Exchange, a six-day program that brought together U.S. students from universities including Stanford University, Harvard University and Yale University.
Co-hosted by China Center for International People-to-People Exchange (CCIPE) under the Ministry of Education and Tsinghua University, the program combines basketball competitions with activities including campus tours and cultural experiences to deepen exchanges, cultivate sportsmanship, and promote communication, understanding, friendship, and cooperation among younger generations on both sides.
"I'm so excited," said Lily Brown, a 20-year-old student from Bates College, after her team won. "Everyone had really good hustle, and everyone was attacking the basket really well and shooting with confidence."
After training with her Chinese teammates for several days, Brown said that despite the language barrier, they shared much in common, from movies and entertainment to social media.
"We communicate through basketball," she added.
That shared language is at the heart of the program's mixed-team format, according to J.R. Carnegie-Hargreaves, the U.S. delegation's team leader.
"The shared pursuit of basketball creates a common ground, and from that, mutual trust and friendship take root," he said.
The idea of using sports to bring people together has a long history in China-U.S. relations. In 1971, a U.S. table tennis team made a historic trip to China, marking the reopening of channels for friendly people-to-people exchanges between the two countries.
This April, Chinese and American young people gathered for events marking the 55th anniversary of Ping-Pong Diplomacy.
Today, young people are increasingly seen as vital bridges in bilateral relations. Deputy Director-General of the CCIPE Cao Diefeng said at the opening ceremony that the program was designed to help young people from both countries not only get to know each other on the court but also step into each other's thoughts and daily lives.
"Through firsthand experiences of the development story, cultural heritage and social landscape of each other's countries, they may come to see each other in a truer, fuller and more vivid light," he added.
China launched an initiative in November 2023 to invite 50,000 young Americans to visit the country for exchange and educational programs over five years. According to China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, more than 50,000 young Americans have since visited China, reaching the target two and a half years ahead of schedule.
For many young Americans, the chance to explore China is an experience in itself. Jason Singleton, an 18-year-old student from Harvard University, said that he felt "blessed" to join the exchange program. It was his first trip to China after studying Chinese for about six years.
"Not everybody in America gets the chance to see the Great Wall," he said, delighted to get immersed in the Chinese culture during the journey.
For Cuyler Sparks, a high school student at Choate Rosemary Hall, the chance to learn more about Chinese basketball while exploring the country was one she couldn't "say no" to.
On her first trip to China, time spent with her Chinese teammates has been just as memorable, especially trying local foods. Roast duck quickly became her favorite dish.
"We don't know what some of the things are, so they explain to us how to eat them and what's really good," she said. "Just being together and trying to figure things out, even with the language barrier, has been really fun."
For some participants, the exchange was more than just a first encounter; it was a chance to continue a friendship that had already begun.
Xi Taicheng, a senior student from Tsinghua University who joined the event two years ago, was glad to meet some familiar faces again this time.
"Playing alongside the U.S. players was always a refreshing experience," he said. During several days of joint training, they chatted about their studies, training and the Chinese Basketball Association (CBA), with the Americans curious about life and basketball in China.
"I've made more new friends this time and added almost all the players on the U.S. men's team on social media," Xi said. "It's been really fun chatting and spending time together."
。主要海运航线的运价“断崖式”暴跌，集装箱航运分析师表示，在能源价格大涨和通胀攀升的推动下，全球经济衰退的背景正在拖累航运市场，而这样的跌势很有可能延续至明年。

二 | 这一变化对中国产品、中国企业会产生什么影响？《环球时报》记者对此进行了调查。中国圣诞商品能否按时送到欧洲上海航运交易所9日发布的数据显示，上海出口集装箱综合运价指数为2562.12点，较上期下跌10%，连续13周下跌。在该机构今年发布的35期周度报告数据里，已有30周下跌。另据波罗的海海运交易所的数据显示，今年1月，中国至美国西海岸航线40英尺集装箱的价格约1万美元，8月价格约为4000美元，暴跌60%，相较于去年最高点的2万美元均价，跌幅超过80%。东南亚泰越航线市场波动较大，由于航线货运需求缺口较大，单周下跌37.1%，即期市场订舱价格大幅下跌，甚至出现少量零运费、负运费的情况。供应链平台机构Freight Waves的数据表示，目前，在洛杉矶、长滩岛、鹿特丹等全球知名港口很难再看到数百艘船舶大排长龙等待靠泊的情况。截至今年8月29日，洛杉矶港有5.0176万个集装箱，而在去年11月下旬，这一数字高达9.0397万个；当天，仅有8艘集装箱船舶在海上等待停靠南加州附近港口，而去年同一时间，这一数字为48艘。随着圣诞季越来越近，许多贸易商开始担心中国的圣诞商品能否按时送到。汉堡贸易商尤丹对《环球时报》驻德国特约记者表示，疫情前，他每年都要去中国义乌等地采购圣诞装饰、玩具、自行车等圣诞商品。

三 | 前两年因为疫情和供应链断裂，生意受到严重影响。今年，中欧海运情况有所好转，海运价格下降，对贸易商来说是好事。

四 | 坏消息是欧元贬值，商品价格上涨。好在中国物价未出现欧美那么高的通胀。“尽管欧洲人现在因为高通胀，消费情绪低落，但圣诞节仍要过，对中国商品的需求仍很大。”尤丹称，中国商品在价格、种类和质量等各个指标上仍具有很大的优势。虽然调查显示，超过2/3的德国公司预计12月份的交货会出现问题，但他仍认为，按照现在海运的情况，会比去年要好。

五 | 从畸高到正常什么原因导致海运价格暴跌？复旦大学经济学院世界经济研究所教授丁纯告诉《环球时报》记者，欧美国家通胀率高企，叠加地缘冲突、能源危机以及疫情，使得航运需求大幅萎缩，这是导致全球海运费暴跌的主要原因。丁纯认为，虽然现在的暴跌是将去年畸高的运价拉回到相对正常的水平，“但这意味着海运运费的天价时代落幕了”。中国国际海运网首席执行官康树春对《环球时报》记者说，供需间的不平衡导致海运运费暴跌。疫情期间由于供应链断裂，部分国家某些物资出现断供情况，多国发生“囤货潮”，这也导致去年海运费用畸高的发生。今年由于全球经济通胀压力大，需求下降，与此同时，此前囤积的库存市场无法消化，使得欧美进口商减少甚至取消了商品订单，“订单荒”在全球蔓延。今年8月，沃尔玛公司表示取消数十亿美元订单；此后不久，又一零售商塔吉特表示取消了超15亿美元订单。

六 | 康树春表示，作为在物流体系中最前端的一环，这些零售商对市场的风向是最敏感的，它们大面积取消订单意味着欧美国家的采购能力、消费能力都在萎缩。上海国际航运研究中心首席信息官徐凯对《环球时报》记者表示，港航大数据显示，去年第三季度，全球集装箱船约30%处于停泊状态，今年同期这一比例下降至约26%，这说明全球的航运周转能力提升了；另一方面，全球商品贸易对于运力的需求却下降了，因此，运价走低是必然的。

七 | 此外，航运巨头大批新船下水则加剧了供需之间的落差。康树春表示，去年畸高的运费让不少船运公司赚得盆满钵满，部分大型航运公司将盈利投入到新造船只上，而在疫情前，全球海运运力已经高于运量。《华尔街日报》援引能源与船舶咨询公司Braemar的说法称，未来两年将有一系列新船下水，预计明年和2024年船队净增长率将超过9%，而集装箱货运量的同比增速在2023年就将转为负值，这会使得全球运力和运量间的失衡进一步加剧。中企应避免内部价格战《华尔街日报》认为，由于国际政治经济局势的诸多不确定性，在今年的剩余时间至明年，航运费很可能进一步下跌。

八 | 康树春告诉《环球时报》记者，虽然目前海运运费暴跌，但仍比疫情前的水平略高，综合考虑现在全球通胀率高企、油价飙高、物价上涨等因素，目前的运费价格算是在合理区间内。

九 | 不过，从目前的全球经济形势来看，海运运费下跌趋势是肯定的，但跌到什么程度以及何时跌停难下定论。徐凯认为，去年海运运费的畸高是反常的，而今年的极速暴跌则更为反常，应该是航运公司对市场变化的过激反应。他告诉《环球时报》记者，今年很多班轮公司都有新集装箱船下水，周转运力很充沛，但全球海运订舱需求量却在萎缩。为了维持班轮的货物装载率，船运公司试图以运费为杠杆撬动需求。但市场运输需求低迷的本质是贸易需求萎缩，用降价的策略不会带来任何新的需求，反而会导致恶性竞争，搅乱海运市场的秩序。“国际海运费用的适度下跌是合理的，但持续暴跌不利于整个市场的正常发展”，徐凯认为，未来海运运费不会下跌并稳定在2019年水平以下，回到略高于或接近2019年的水平是比较理性的区间。徐凯透露，年初时，不少货主为避免再出现一箱难求的情况，与海运物流公司签订长期协议价，而现在市场即期运费已远低于签订价格。如果国内海运物流企业盲目跟随降价，不仅会损害货主利益，也不利于长期合作，并且降价也不能带来运输需求的增加，“与其打价格战不如提升服务水平，或者开发速航、集货物流等新业务”。徐凯还表示，今年出口企业“一箱难求”的情况肯定不会再出现，但这并不意味着给制造业传递盈利的利好信号。在影响企业收益的关键因素中，运费占比极小，通常在集装箱货物价值的1%以内。

十 | 对于国内出口企业来说，徐凯认为，更重要的是货物的国际竞争力和销量，而欧美经济衰退、通胀加剧，同时去年超订货物还要消化一段时间，购买力下降将会持续一段时间。“要解决这一痛点，一是加强区域一体化，提升我国供应链物流的跨国管理能力，打通供应链的堵点；二是要培育更多优秀的中资跨国企业和品牌，提升制造业产品设计、创新研发能力，让中国摆脱只是‘世界工厂’的标签，推动‘中国智造’的高质量产品去吸引更多的国际消费需求。”徐凯说。

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